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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd